South Africa’s Free-Roaming Cheetahs Face an Uncertain Future, Landmark Census Reveal

The first coordinated national census of South Africa’s free-roaming cheetahs has revealed a population far smaller than previously estimated and highlighted an urgent need for stronger protection, better connectivity and greater coexistence between people and wildlife.

South Africa is home to one of the most important cheetah populations in Africa. But a landmark new census has revealed a deeply concerning picture for the country’s remaining free-roaming cheetahs- those living outside formally protected areas.

After more than three years of research across almost 100,000 square kilometres, researchers recorded just 119 individual cheetahs, including only 83 mature adults.

The findings, from the Free-Roaming Cheetah Census, represent the most comprehensive assessment yet of this vulnerable population and suggest that South Africa’s free-roaming cheetahs may be significantly fewer in number than previously believed.

For conservationists, the message is clear: protecting the cheetah means protecting not only the animals themselves, but the landscapes they depend on and the communities they share them with.

A population smaller than expected

Between 2022 and 2026, researchers from Ashia Cheetah Conservation, the Cheetah Outreach Trust and the University of Groningen surveyed vast areas across South Africa’s northern regions.

The team used a combination of conservation monitoring techniques, including camera traps, GPS collars, landowner surveys, genetic analysis, scat sampling and public sighting records.

Their work identified 119 individual free-roaming cheetahs, with just 83 mature adults recorded.

The number is particularly significant because mature adults form the breeding population. With high mortality among young cheetahs, the survival of adult animals is critical to the long-term future of the species.

The census findings are believed to represent a minimum population count, but they are still substantially lower than previous model-based estimates.

Their habitat is disappearing and becoming fragmented

One of the most significant findings from the census was the extent to which cheetahs have disappeared from areas previously thought to be suitable habitat.

Researchers confirmed cheetah presence in less than half of the areas currently classified as suitable habitat.

This has led to calls for habitat and distribution maps to be updated using the latest field data.

But the challenge is not simply the amount of habitat available. It is also whether that habitat remains connected.

Expanding agriculture, infrastructure, roads, settlements and intensive fencing are increasingly dividing the landscape. The remaining free-roaming population has effectively become separated into different regions, limiting the movement of animals between them.

For a wide-ranging species such as the cheetah, this can have serious consequences.

Connected landscapes allow animals to move, find mates and maintain genetic diversity. When populations become isolated, the risk of inbreeding increases and their ability to adapt and survive can be reduced.

Cheetahs need space - but they also need connectivity.

Human-wildlife conflict remains a major threat

Perhaps one of the most alarming findings from the study was the number of cheetahs lost during the census period.

Around 20% of the cheetahs identified during the three-and-a-half-year survey died.

Where the cause of death was known, illegal persecution was identified as a significant factor.

Conflict between people and predators remains one of the greatest challenges facing wildlife living outside protected areas. Some landowners perceive cheetahs as a threat to livestock and, in some cases, take lethal action to remove what they see as a risk.

However, the census also highlighted the importance of evidence and understanding in addressing these conflicts.

Analysis of cheetah scat collected during the study found no evidence of livestock remains in the samples examined, suggesting that the animals in the study area were primarily feeding on wild antelope.

This does not mean that livestock predation never occurs. But it demonstrates why education, monitoring and evidence-based conservation are so important.

Helping communities and farmers live alongside predators through non-lethal predator management, improved awareness and appropriate incentives could play a crucial role in reducing conflict and preventing unnecessary losses.

The challenge of fences

Fencing presents another complex challenge for cheetah conservation in South Africa.

The country's fenced cheetah metapopulation has often been seen as an important conservation success. Carefully managed reserves can provide safe spaces for cheetahs and support breeding populations.

However, researchers have raised concerns that fenced reserves may also unintentionally affect the free-roaming population.

Wild cheetahs can enter some reserves but may be unable to leave again. As a result, animals that were once part of the free-roaming population may no longer contribute to its genetic diversity or movement across the wider landscape.

This highlights the importance of looking at cheetah conservation as a connected national challenge rather than managing individual populations in isolation.

A call for a coordinated national strategy

South Africa’s cheetahs exist across several different management systems, including free-roaming populations, populations in large protected areas, fenced reserves and captivity.

The census researchers are now calling for a more coordinated national approach that brings together government, conservation organisations, NGOs, reserve managers, scientists and private landowners.

That approach should include:

● Consistent national population monitoring

● Regular genetic assessments

● Improved data sharing between conservation organisations

● Protection and restoration of connected habitats

● Action to reduce illegal persecution

● Support for non-lethal approaches to human-wildlife conflict

● Conservation decisions that consider all cheetah populations together

Why this matters

Cheetahs are built for movement.

They need large landscapes, access to prey and the ability to travel between populations. Yet across southern Africa, development, fencing and human activity are increasingly dividing the places wildlife depends on.

The new census provides an essential baseline for understanding the true status of South Africa’s free-roaming cheetahs.